Friday, September 28, 2007

Betcha Bottom Dollar: Week Four

"Aren't you glad you don't bet real money? You suck at this."

And that's the e-mail I first opened early Tuesday morning.

I had a bad week. I know I had a bad week. And yet somebody still the need to rub my bad week in my face.

I get it, I really do. When you're gambling on games, it's generally not a good idea to go 5-8-2. I understand. On the flipside, though, had I received any congratulatory messages the prior week when I had gone 10-6? A single one?

Of course not. Because you're all assholes.

The picks:

Oakland @ Miami (-4). It's Trent Green vs. Daunte Culpepper, which sounds nice, but then you realize it's not 2001. Ol' Coach Saban really left the Dolphins in a healthy place, huh? Well, at least the Raiders are in town, which drastically reduces the possibility of 0-4. PICK: Miami

Houston (-3) @ Atlanta. Alright, back to my beloved Falcons, which I've picked to win every week. And yes, they're o-3. As somebody who has watched every down of every game, though, I can't help but think there is a 9-7 team just fighting to get out. Truth is, this team should be 2-1. A kicker blew a game for us, and a meltdown by our #1 corner took down another. And now we have former Falcon Matt Schaub coming back to town, just to rub our faces in the shit that is the 2007 campaign. But get a win here, and the momentum could be on our side - and I truly think nine wins could take this division. (I've been drinking, by the way.) PICK: Atlanta

Baltimore (-4) @ Cleveland. Nothing interesting to say here, so let's revisit the whole DeAngelo Hall controversy. First, I don't really like Hall, and haven't since he stiffed my class back when I was a teacher. He was supposed to come on a Tuesday morning, but scraped himself up in the Monday night game and had to delay. Fine, whatever, understandable. Of course, though, he never showed up, and ignored my written request for some kind of souvenir for a particular kid who was devastated by his no-show. So fuck him. Howevah: he had every right to be pissed last Sunday. The pass interference call was legit, but he got straight-up hosed on the ensuing personal foul, and even on the Unsportsmanlike Conduct call that followed. Now I'm all about his supposed fine for jawing at Coach Petrino, but what's being ignored here is the (yet again) awful officiating in the NFL. Oh, and what's this crap about not playing him for a quarter or more in this Sunday's game? Have you seen the team's other corners? The guy is a tool, but he's good (remember, at the time of his meltdown, Steve Smith had zero catches for zero yards.) There's no need to punish the entire team even more for Hall's antics - hit him in the wallet, but keep him on the field. PICK: Baltimore

Chicago (-3) @ Detroit. And the Brian Griese era begins in Illinois. Whenever I feel bad about the Falcons' QB situation, I just look north. I'd take Joey Harrington and Byron Leftwich eight days a week over Griese and Grossmann. PICK: Detroit

Green Bay (-3) @ Minnesota. Woo-hoo, Brett Favre is going to break the touchdowns record this weekend. Yeah, buddy. I love when ex-Falcons QBs flourish elsewhere. I mean, that's just kick-you-in-the-crotch, spit-on-your-neck fantastic. PICK: Green Bay

St. Louis @ Dallas (-13 1/2). If the Super Bowl ends up being New England vs. Dallas, I'm going to kill your dog. PICK: St. Louis

NY Jets (-3 1/2) @ Buffalo. So how fabulous is it that the New York Mets might miss the baseball postseason? I'm suddenly interested in baseball again, if only to root against the Mets the rest of the regular season, and against the Red Sox in the playoffs. If I can't think positive about a team (and I can't, as the Braves are out), I can rock my jollies by using hate as fuel. The Dark Side is strong with me. PICK: Buffalo

Tampa Bay @ Carolina (-3). If one game has to be attacked by terrorists this weekend, I choose this one. And that's saying something, since this isn't a bye week for the Patriots. PICK: Tampa Bay

Seattle (-2 1/2) @ San Francisco. After seeing Death Sentence a couple of weeks ago, I recently decided to go back to the source: the 1974 Charles Bronson vengeance classic Death Wish. And there's a movie that would never be made today. I mean, it's fantastic. It unequivocally states Bronson's character is a pussy for being a liberal, and only a visit to a gun club in the boonies opens his eyes up to the power of taking the law (and guns) into your own hands. Of course, I loved every second of it. Death Wish II is now in the top spot of my Netflix queue. (Although I'm not sure I'll go all the way to 1994's Death Wish V: The Face of Death, made when Bronson was 72). PICK: San Francisco

Pittsburgh (-6 1/2) @ Arizona.
The Steelers have won their first three games by 27, 23 and 21, so this spread seems awfully easy to pick. And that's why you have to go the other way. PICK: Arizona

Kansas City @ San Diego (-12).
The Scheduling Gods couldn't have been nicer to the floundering Chargers. PICK: San Diego

Denver @ Indianapolis (-10). Last week, I told you about the Vegas trick of 6 1/2 point spreads. Indy was favored over the Texans by that number, and I explained how the bookies use that to ensnare unwitting victims. As in, "The Colts only have to win by a single touchdown. That's gold, baby!" Of course, I went against my own advice and picked the Colts anyway. And then they go and win - by SIX. I hate gambling. I will definitely follow my other rule here, though: always bet against the 2007 Broncos. Though it seems the oddsmakers have adjusted their Shanahan-love a bit, this is gonna be a blow-out. PICK: Indianapolis

Philadelphia (-3) @ NY Giants. Ugh, can they both lose? PICK: Philadelphia

New England (-7 1/2) @ Cincinnati. Well, that's just great. My first-round fantasy pick, Bengals running back Rudi Johnson, will miss this game. And this is the same weekend my other RB, Reggie Bush, has a bye. Of course, since I've started an unblemished 3-0 - a begrudging thanks to Tom Brady, that dick - I guess I can afford to falter just a little. (By the way, the 7 1/2 point spread is the evil twin of the 6 1/2 one. Vegas is begging you to take the Bengals here. Don't be a sucker.) PICK: New England

Last week: 5-8-2

Overall: 22-21-4
Fake wagering total ($100 on every game, 10% juice on losses): down $110


Stanicek said...

WOW! You really have drank the Atlanta Kool-Aid..."Its the refs fault", "Its the kicker's fault", "they're really not that bad"...9-7?! 9-7!!!!???

Anywho - glad to see you finall acknowledged the REAL sports drama that's unfolding this week...the pennant race - how great would a 5 way tie between the Mets, Phils, Padres, Rockies and D-Backs be? They would just have to let one representative of each loose in the Octagon and the last two standing head to (queue Dane Cook voice) OCTOBER BABY!

Doug said...

Be careful, Massey. The more you repeat that "This is the week the Falcons win one" line, the more it sounds like Tech fans repeating "This is the year we finally beat Georgia."

Josh said...

Come on, I'm not completely delusional. And please note I never clearly said the Falcons would get a win, just that they would cover.